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16 May 2018 year Universality of predictive analytics
Energy and Industry of Russia newspaper

According to the statistics from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, 3,801 accidents were reported at power grid and generating facilities in 2017. This implies a loss of at least 15 billion rubles just on repairs, equipment downtime, and fines from the market for PDC facilities.

Predictive analytics systems can predict 6 out of 8 types of accidents based on raw data and in-depth analysis of the current situation. This was confirmed by Maxim Lipatov, Technical Director of the PRANA remote monitoring and prognostics system by ROTEC JSC.

"The PRANA solution is an industrial IoT solution based on predictive analytics", said Mr. Lipatov. "It is no secret that the main digital technologies come from the West, and we try to use their experience and adapt it to our context. We created the first versions of the monitoring system based on the platforms of foreign manufacturers, studying how they work, and how data is collected and analyzed. And we came to the conclusion that there is no solution that fully meets our requirements. This is how our own project started. In 2012, a service division for energy gas turbines was created at ROTEC. Remote monitoring and control of the equipment's technical condition became one of the areas of long-term service. Currently, six combined-cycle and gas-turbine power units are already fully connected to the monitoring system. We plan to connect six more blocks this year.

According to Maxim Lipatov, the PRANA system is universal - it can be used in different areas and in different markets. Similar equipment is used at production sites in both the oil&gas and chemical industries, and the principles of the approach to monitoring, control and predicting the equipment condition are also quite universal. Therefore, it is possible to introduce such systems both on energy machines and any other industrial equipment.

"As a result of implementing the PRANA solution, repair time is reduced, unscheduled downtime becomes scheduled, and equipment operation schemes, equipment composition, and operation modes are revised. In other words, digitalization and the transition to modern management methods provide great advantages, including for top management, who receive completely objective and transparent information about the state of equipment; all they have to do is to run the application, which can also be done on any mobile device, view the condition of the asset, and make a decision on further work to be done. The basis of our system is the MSET mathematical method – a technique for estimating multidimensional states. It is extremely sensitive to tiny deviations in the equipment, which makes it possible to identify and predict deviations in equipment operation more than two or three months before a real emergency," said Lipatov.

"We also provide 24/7 support services for operating organizations; the dispatcher monitors the technical condition of the equipment at the station and, if necessary, informs the operations department in real time about what kind of problems have occurred and what their possible causes are. A group of professional experts investigates the causes of deviations and proposes measures that need to be carried out in order to prevent an accident or damage to the equipment," he added.

The interviewee gave an example of when the owner of the equipment asked the company to find out whether it would have been possible to save the turbine using prognostics systems. Analysis of the archives showed that a defect in the equipment, which led to damage, began to show itself in the operating parameters at least 12 days before. This kind of system could reveal the fault at least 7 days in advance, and warn the operating services of the origin of the defect. This would have prevented the incident or at least reduced the extent of the damage. The costs incurred by the owner in this case exceeded 1.5 billion rubles.

Examples of monitoring and predicting the state of equipment in real time, as well as the ability to predict the operation of equipment in the future will allow for flexible and effective operation of a large amount of distributed equipment.

At the next stage of the system's development, ROTEC intends to use this information for calculating economic characteristics, planning, optimizing, creating solutions for tasks related to the investment component (in particular, equipment replacement, service life extension).

Lipatov believes that these systems should certainly work in conjunction with equipment manufacturers. It is no secret that before selling their equipment, world-class companies install these kinds of systems by default, and many customers do not even know about it.

“The monitoring information was received by foreign equipment manufacturers, who derived their own benefit from it by monitoring certain areas in order to subsequently increase equipment efficiency without notifying the customer,” said Lipatov. "We, as an independent company, provide all this information completely openly. We do not depend on the manufacturer of the equipment, but provide the results the to customers and operators of the equipment. I hope that in the future we will help to improve the quality and efficiency of equipment produced in the country. We take part in various initiatives of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. Recently, as part of energy week, there was a discussion on the development of approaches to assessing the technical condition of equipment.

During the round table, Elena Medvedeva, Deputy Director of the Department for Operational Control and Management in the Electric Power Industry at the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, noted the great importance of ROTEC technologies as a Russian company with an alternative solution that is relevant for the industry.

"We know how the system was created, how laborious and investment-intensive the processes are, and how expensive the products are," said Ms. Medvedeva. "And when we were planning a common information space, we took into account the experience of our colleagues. We want to create a framework that will allow us to create faster and cheaper solutions in this field. We want to form common approaches to creating a metadata repository, so that all the information collected in the power industry has the necessary attributes for preparing analytics.

Later on, a model for developing current parameters and an assessment and prognostics model will be built. The essence of a common information space, among other things, is to create unified approaches so that such products can be available as services for our companies as quickly as possible.

Energy and Industry of Russia newspaper
No. 09 (341) May 2018

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